If no presidential candidate garners more than half of all votes cast countrywide, a fresh election could be held as early as April 5.
But if there will be a winner declared after yesterday’s poll, the new president-elect will be sworn in on March 26.
In addition to more than half, the Constitution also provides that the candidate must also score 25 per cent in more than half of all counties, meaning in 24 out of the 47 counties.
Sleepless nights
These rules have been giving all the eight presidential candidates sleepless nights including the two front-runners Raila Odinga of Cord and Uhuru Kenyatta of Jubilee.
Although winning presidential candidates used to satisfy the 25 per cent rule in five out of eight provinces under the old Constitution, none ever mustered more than half of votes cast since the re-introduction of multi-party in 1992.
The provisions under Article 138 in the new Constitution means that if by end of vote count last night the IEBC found all the 14.3 million registered voters turned up, the winner must have received more than 7.15 million and the 25 per cent to be declared president-elect.
This is a herculean task, given the stiff competition in the run-up to yesterday’s poll. Similarly, if only 60 per cent turned up — as is the trend in elections worldwide — it means only 8.58 million voted, meaning the winner should have got more than 4.29 million.
Still, these are difficult figures to achieve, though feasible.
Where there is no winner, Article 138 (5) provides that fresh election be held within 30 days after the previous one — which would leave April 5 as an indicative date.
At the second round, only the first and the second presidential candidates are allowed to vie.
However, if the results show that two candidates tied in votes, only the two will go to the ballot excluding the candidate who came second.
Though it has never happened in Kenya’s presidential elections, a precedent was set in the 2007 elections when two candidates vying for Wajir North Parliamentary seat tied after two recounts forcing a by-election to decide the winner.
Yet, again it is possible in yesterday’s elections given the close run shown in opinion polls pitting Mr Odinga and Mr Kenyatta.
Every scenario remains a possibility as eyes of all Kenyans are set on the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission.
source: elections.nation.co.ke
