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| Statehouse, Nairobi. |
Who will not win
Martha Wangari Karua can make a great madame President as she is one of the few whose political achievement has been through hard work, commitment and determination. These attributes have raised her through the ranks to the top. Ms. Karua understands what it means to be poor, middle class, and now upper class. Unfortunately, her iron lady status will continue to work against her ambitions. Notable are Karua’s walk out on former President Moi while he was addressing a crowd in Kirinyaga stadium; and her 2009 heated confrontation with William Ruto at a Presidential cabinet meeting over a maize scandal. Also, Karua championing of women’s rights in Kenya has angered some.
Peter (Mbari ya Muhuni family) Kenneth’s development agenda in Gatanga constituency makes him the best candidate to propel Kenya to the next generation of development. Kenneth is a proven charismatic material but his problem is simple. Kenneth is too much to himself; self-centered, self-driven, and is not a darling of the powerful in Kenya. He is well liked by the youth but a split youth vote will not be enough to elevate Kenneth to Presidency.
Wycliff Musalia Mudavadi who recently decamped from ODM in favor of joining Uhuru Kenyatta and William Ruto in the Jubilee coalition but, later left the coalition after a breach of contract comes out as honest, naïve and laidback. These attributes do not befit Kenya’s vibrant political scene. In 2002, Mudavadi was the last and shortest serving vice-president under Moi. Rumors are still swirling in Kenya that Mudavadi’s presidential bid is a Moi project designed to deny Raila any chance of winning Kenya’s Presidency. Mudavadi’s notorious truthfulness and pacifism evolving from his staunch quacker upbringing and his lack of widespread national support will deny him the Presidency.
Paul Kibugi Muite, Mohamed Abduba Dida and James Ole Kiyiapi are nothing more than echoes in the political arena.
The Contest
The presidential contest translates into a two-way horse-race between Prime Minister Raila Odinga and Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta. These are the two candidates to watch. Raila will poll well in Nyanza even though Kisii, Kuria, and Luhya vote will be split. In the Rift Valley, Raila polling will be mediocre at best because of his fall-out with many Kalenjins after a sour relationship with Rift Valley kingpin William Ruto. His Rift Valley problems are also compounded by the Mau forest effect. Henry Kosgei and other Kalenjins supporting ODM will be a non-factor. Raila will probably poll at 50% in Nairobi; lower at the coast; but very poorly in Central, Eastern, and North Eastern Kenya.
Raila’s stand on the ICC issue seeds disdain and mistrust and creates bitterness within the Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities. The entrenched believe that these communities have been unfairly targeted by the ICC and the whisper that the West is standing behind Raila does not help. The stigma and suspicion that Raila could easily be cajoled to mortgage Kenya to the West creates a black mark. Many believe the West has not done much for Kenya’s population since independence and are not bound to do much post-Kibaki.
Uhuru will poll poorly in Nyanza but he is bound to do well in Central Kenya in spite of a split vote due to the Karua/Kenneth effect. He will also poll nicely in the Rift Valley partly due to his marriage of convenience with Ruto. The size of Kikuyu population in the Rift Valley will be an added advantage for Uhuru. Charity Ngilu’s leanings towards the Jubilee coalition is guaranteed to win Uhuru substantial Kamba vote; some of it in protest against Kalonzo’s association with Raila. In the coast, with alignment of Balala and others to Jubilee, Uhuru is destined to poll well. North Eastern Kenya will likely be a split vote but Kenyatta will more than likely bag more votes than Raila .
A decisive winner will not be declared on March 4 because the complex Kenyan voter will not award anyone more than 50% of the vote. The preceding run-off will be a two-horse race between Uhuru and Raila with Uhuru winning the race by more than 52% of the vote. Recent polls indicate Raila will amass less than 40% of the vote in the run-off.
Emerging Signals
The nomination rejection of Oburu Odinga, the turmoil in Kisumu following Raila’s endorsement of a five-point plan, Obama’s pleading for peace to Kenyans with an explicit reference to no preferred candidate, the ICC noted shift regarding the difficulties of the cases against Kenyans, and Raila’s claim of plan to rig the vote against him are clear signals that the winds are blowing in the opposite direction.
Reading between the lines, I predict an Uhuru win.
By Paddy Mwembu, Los Angeles, California, USA
via mwakilishi.com
