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UHURU KENYATTA will beat RAILA ODINGA hands down – CURRENT and 2007 STATISTICS

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Going by the latest statistics, Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta will beat Prime Minister Raila Odinga hands down despite Raila leading in the opinion polls.

Basing our report on the 2007 general election voting patterns where 80 percent of the voters turned out, Uhuru team will bag more votes than Raila’s team.

For instance in Nairobi, out of 1.6m registered voters Uhuru and Raila will averagely garner 50 percent each of the votes cast. That translates to over 800,000 each votes for both Raila and Uhuru.

In Coast province which is perceived to be an ODM stronghold, out of the total 1.1 million registered voters Raila will take an upper hand of over 7oo, ooo votes while Uhuru takes 350, ooo votes.

In North Eastern province which is perceived to be a neutral grounds for both Uhuru and Raila, they will each take 50-50 which translates to 150,000 votes each.

 In Eastern Province, Raila will approximately take close to 1 million Kamba vote while Uhuru takes 800,000 Meru, Embu and a few Kamba votes.

In the populous Rift Valley, which was a battle ground in 2007, Kibaki took 850,000 while Raila took 1.5 million votes. But in the upcoming election, the Kibaki’s votes which consisted of Laikipia, Subukia, Nakuru and upper RV counties  will  now be Uhuru’s plus the 1.5 million Kalenjin vote which translates  to 2.3 million votes for Uhuru  against 800,000 for Raila.

In the Western region, Mudavadi’s entry into the fold has shifted Raila’s and Uhuru’s political fortunes and it is expected that Mudavadi will out rightly get over half the share of Luhya votes. Assuming that over 1.2 million are cast, Mudavadi will outrightly get over 600,000 votes with Raila and Uhuru sharing the rest. Raila may get 500,000 and Uhuru may get only 5o, ooo votes  from the region

In Nyanza region Raila will get a bloc of 1.7 million votes while Uhuru takes Central province as bloc of 2.1 million votes.

In summary here is the table;

Region
Raila Odinga votes
Uhuru Kenyatta votes

Nairobi
800,ooo
800,000

Coast
700,ooo
350,000

North eastern
150,ooo
150,000

Eastern
1,ooo,000
8oo,000

Rift Valley
800,ooo
2,300,000

Western
500,000
50,000

Nyanza
1,700,ooo
-

Central
-
2,100,000

Totals
5,650,000
6,550,000
Remember numbers don’t lie…… Look at how Kenyans voted in 2007 and the opinion polls. A close analysis of each Province

OPINION POLL figures leading to 2007

Poll date
Kibaki
Musyoka
Odinga
Mudavadi
Ruto
Kenyatta
October 2006
41%
20%
13%

3%
5%
December 2006
42%
20%
14%

3%
5%
March 2007
51%
14%
17%
2%
2%
2%
April 2007
44.3%
15.3%
18.7%
2.7%
2.6%
3.5%
June 2007
45%
14%
28%
4%
3%
4%
July 2007
45%
11%
25%
3%
2%
2%
August 2007
42%
11%
25%
8%
6%
1%
August 2007
47%
13%
36%
1%

1%
September 2007
38%
8%
47%



October 13, 2007
37%
8%
53%



October 23, 2007
39%
8%
50%



November 9, 2007
41%
11%
45%



November 21, 2007
41.4%
14.7%
40.7%



November 17, 2007
42%
11%
45%



November 23, 2007
43.3%
11.4%
43.6%



December 7, 2007
42%
10%
46%



December 18, 2007
43%
10%
45%





GENERAL RESULTS per candidate in 2007
Party
Candidate
Votes (ECK) 29 Jan
Votes (Kibaki Gov't)

PNU
Mwai Kibaki
4,578,034
4,584,721
47%

ODM
Raila Odinga
4,352,860
4,352,993
44%

ODM-K
Kalonzo Musyoka
879,899
879,903
9%

KPTP
Joseph Karani
21,168
21,171
0.2%

KPP
Pius Muiru
9,665
9,667
0.09%

WCPK
Nazlin Omar
8,624
8,624
0.087%

SSA
Kenneth Matiba
8,049
8,046
0.081%

CCUP
David Ng'ethe
5,976
5,976
0.06%

RPK
Nixon Kukubo
5,926
5,927
0.06%



ANALYSIS per PROVINCE and voting blocs
Province
Kibaki
%
Odinga
%
Kalonzo
%
Others
%
Votes Cast
Registered Voters
Turnout
NAIROBI
313,478
47.7%
288,922
44.0%
52,974
8.1%
1,845
0.3%
657,219
1,275,021
51.5%
COAST
197,354
33.1%
353,773
59.4%
38,881
6.5%
5,909
1.0%
595,917
1,045,629
57.0%
NORTH EASTERN
97,263
50.3%
91,440
47.2%
4,498
2.3%
333
0.2%
193,534
315,664
61.3%
EASTERN
835,481
50.4%
83,575
5.0%
726,782
43.8%
13,229
0.8%
1,659,067
2,516,998
65.9%
CENTRAL
1,741,086
97.0%
34,046
1.9%
11,702
0.7%
7,215
0.4%
1,794,049
2,186,315
82.1%
RIFT VALLEY
818,445
33.5%
1,580,880
64.6%
33,863
1.4%
12,300
0.5%
2,445,488
3,358,285
72.8%
WESTERN
312,300
32.2%
639,246
65.9%
6,729
0.7%
11,417
1.2%
969,692
1,564,854
62.0%
NYANZA
262,627
16.9%
1,280,978
82.4%
4,476
0.3%
7,160
0.5%
1,555,235
2,041,686
76.2%
Totals
4,578,034
46.4%
4,352,860
44.1%
879,899
8.9%
59,408
0.6%
9,870,201
14,304,452
69.0%



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