Basing our report on the 2007 general election voting patterns where 80 percent of the voters turned out, Uhuru team will bag more votes than Raila’s team.
For instance in Nairobi, out of 1.6m registered voters Uhuru and Raila will averagely garner 50 percent each of the votes cast. That translates to over 800,000 each votes for both Raila and Uhuru.
In Coast province which is perceived to be an ODM stronghold, out of the total 1.1 million registered voters Raila will take an upper hand of over 7oo, ooo votes while Uhuru takes 350, ooo votes.
In North Eastern province which is perceived to be a neutral grounds for both Uhuru and Raila, they will each take 50-50 which translates to 150,000 votes each.
In Eastern Province, Raila will approximately take close to 1 million Kamba vote while Uhuru takes 800,000 Meru, Embu and a few Kamba votes.
In the populous Rift Valley, which was a battle ground in 2007, Kibaki took 850,000 while Raila took 1.5 million votes. But in the upcoming election, the Kibaki’s votes which consisted of Laikipia, Subukia, Nakuru and upper RV counties will now be Uhuru’s plus the 1.5 million Kalenjin vote which translates to 2.3 million votes for Uhuru against 800,000 for Raila.
In the Western region, Mudavadi’s entry into the fold has shifted Raila’s and Uhuru’s political fortunes and it is expected that Mudavadi will out rightly get over half the share of Luhya votes. Assuming that over 1.2 million are cast, Mudavadi will outrightly get over 600,000 votes with Raila and Uhuru sharing the rest. Raila may get 500,000 and Uhuru may get only 5o, ooo votes from the region
In Nyanza region Raila will get a bloc of 1.7 million votes while Uhuru takes Central province as bloc of 2.1 million votes.
In summary here is the table;
| Region | Raila Odinga votes | Uhuru Kenyatta votes |
| Nairobi | 800,ooo | 800,000 |
| Coast | 700,ooo | 350,000 |
| North eastern | 150,ooo | 150,000 |
| Eastern | 1,ooo,000 | 8oo,000 |
| Rift Valley | 800,ooo | 2,300,000 |
| Western | 500,000 | 50,000 |
| Nyanza | 1,700,ooo | - |
| Central | - | 2,100,000 |
| Totals | 5,650,000 | 6,550,000 |
Remember numbers don’t lie…… Look at how Kenyans voted in 2007 and the opinion polls. A close analysis of each Province
OPINION POLL figures leading to 2007
| Poll date | Kibaki | Musyoka | Odinga | Mudavadi | Ruto | Kenyatta |
| October 2006 | 41% | 20% | 13% | 3% | 5% | |
| December 2006 | 42% | 20% | 14% | 3% | 5% | |
| March 2007 | 51% | 14% | 17% | 2% | 2% | 2% |
| April 2007 | 44.3% | 15.3% | 18.7% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 3.5% |
| June 2007 | 45% | 14% | 28% | 4% | 3% | 4% |
| July 2007 | 45% | 11% | 25% | 3% | 2% | 2% |
| August 2007 | 42% | 11% | 25% | 8% | 6% | 1% |
| August 2007 | 47% | 13% | 36% | 1% | 1% | |
| September 2007 | 38% | 8% | 47% | |||
| October 13, 2007 | 37% | 8% | 53% | |||
| October 23, 2007 | 39% | 8% | 50% | |||
| November 9, 2007 | 41% | 11% | 45% | |||
| November 21, 2007 | 41.4% | 14.7% | 40.7% | |||
| November 17, 2007 | 42% | 11% | 45% | |||
| November 23, 2007 | 43.3% | 11.4% | 43.6% | |||
| December 7, 2007 | 42% | 10% | 46% | |||
| December 18, 2007 | 43% | 10% | 45% | |
GENERAL RESULTS per candidate in 2007
| Party | Candidate | Votes (ECK) 29 Jan | Votes (Kibaki Gov't) | ||
| PNU | Mwai Kibaki | 4,578,034 | 4,584,721 | 47% | |
| ODM | Raila Odinga | 4,352,860 | 4,352,993 | 44% | |
| ODM-K | Kalonzo Musyoka | 879,899 | 879,903 | 9% | |
| KPTP | Joseph Karani | 21,168 | 21,171 | 0.2% | |
| KPP | Pius Muiru | 9,665 | 9,667 | 0.09% | |
| WCPK | Nazlin Omar | 8,624 | 8,624 | 0.087% | |
| SSA | Kenneth Matiba | 8,049 | 8,046 | 0.081% | |
| CCUP | David Ng'ethe | 5,976 | 5,976 | 0.06% | |
| RPK | Nixon Kukubo | 5,926 | 5,927 | 0.06% | |
ANALYSIS per PROVINCE and voting blocs
| Province | Kibaki | % | Odinga | % | Kalonzo | % | Others | % | Votes Cast | Registered Voters | Turnout |
| NAIROBI | 313,478 | 47.7% | 288,922 | 44.0% | 52,974 | 8.1% | 1,845 | 0.3% | 657,219 | 1,275,021 | 51.5% |
| COAST | 197,354 | 33.1% | 353,773 | 59.4% | 38,881 | 6.5% | 5,909 | 1.0% | 595,917 | 1,045,629 | 57.0% |
| NORTH EASTERN | 97,263 | 50.3% | 91,440 | 47.2% | 4,498 | 2.3% | 333 | 0.2% | 193,534 | 315,664 | 61.3% |
| EASTERN | 835,481 | 50.4% | 83,575 | 5.0% | 726,782 | 43.8% | 13,229 | 0.8% | 1,659,067 | 2,516,998 | 65.9% |
| CENTRAL | 1,741,086 | 97.0% | 34,046 | 1.9% | 11,702 | 0.7% | 7,215 | 0.4% | 1,794,049 | 2,186,315 | 82.1% |
| RIFT VALLEY | 818,445 | 33.5% | 1,580,880 | 64.6% | 33,863 | 1.4% | 12,300 | 0.5% | 2,445,488 | 3,358,285 | 72.8% |
| WESTERN | 312,300 | 32.2% | 639,246 | 65.9% | 6,729 | 0.7% | 11,417 | 1.2% | 969,692 | 1,564,854 | 62.0% |
| NYANZA | 262,627 | 16.9% | 1,280,978 | 82.4% | 4,476 | 0.3% | 7,160 | 0.5% | 1,555,235 | 2,041,686 | 76.2% |
| Totals | 4,578,034 | 46.4% | 4,352,860 | 44.1% | 879,899 | 8.9% | 59,408 | 0.6% | 9,870,201 | 14,304,452 | 69.0% |
The Kenyan DAILY POST
