It is hard to believe that the mother from Central Kenya who has been languishing with her children as internally displaced person will trust her future to the very forces that abandoned her to destitution even if they are from the same ethnic group. It is difficult to fathom that the Kalenjin youth will be ignorant to the fact that they were hoodwinked into committing inconceivable crimes against hapless neighbors who were just as impoverished as they are for political gain. Will the landless peasant in the Coast Province relinquish their voice to a land baron who publicly admits to owning a significant portion of their ancestral land just because he was able to convince one of their leaders to join his Jubilee team?
Then there is the forgotten silent majority, the women of Kenya. Are we assuming that the fiercely independent women of Kenya are beholden to the will of their men folk? Are we saying that the mothers of Kenya do not see through the false rhetoric? Does the tyranny of tribalism supersede that of gender because if it does not, then perhaps half the country will vote for the sole female candidate the indomitable Honorable Martha Karua. Will avowed Christians vote against their consciences over their tribal allegiances because if the tyranny of faith eclipses that of tribe then the Christian voter will arise and vote for Professor Kiyiapi who has presented his credentials as a minister of the word of God as one of his qualifications to lead Kenya? After all, the National Day of Repentance this past Sunday attracted a multitude greater than has ever been seen before at any political rally. Did Kenyans show up in the thousands because the Prophet, Dr. Owuor is a Luo or because he is a Christian? And with the comical teacher Mohammed Dida in the picture albeit late in the game, will Muslim Kenya which accounts for 20% of the vote against one of their own faith? Will the indigent slum dweller from Kibera vote for the same failed leadership just because they have new elaborate free housing ploys hastily cobbled in manifestos which the know will only collect dust after the elections? Will the jobless tarmacing Kenyans vote along tribal lines with the knowledge that this will serve no benefit to their prospects to find work? Will the youth vote for the elderly or will the elderly vote to pass the mantle? Will the urban youth with their renewed vigor vote to recycle the same old failed leadership? Will the peace loving Kenyan vote for known trouble makers?
Given the prevailing political conditions, it also presumes that tribal instincts make basic common sense uncommon. The sort of common sense that the ICC accused radio-journalist Joshua Arap Sang showed a few days ago when he came out in open support of the Prime Minister Raila Odinga because of his own reflection on what he thinks is best for Kenya in spite of the ICC case that looms over him. The principle of the tyranny of tribal numbers assumes that Kenyans are going to play a high stakes gamble of Russian roulette with their future and reputation by electing two persons accused of crimes against humanity despite undeniable warnings from the international community. It also assumes that Kenyans will not give merit to the untainted professor with a sterling public career James Ole Kiyiapi, the charismatic MP and successful business leader Peter Kenneth, the pragmatic teacher Mohammed Dida, the people’s legal counsel and human rights activist Paul Muite and Kenya’s iron lady Martha Karua. Whereas it is undeniable that the Jubilee and CORD coalitions have a strong following because Kenya is Balkanized into voting blocs, it is also criss-crossed with a diversity of issues, ideas, persuasions and sensibilities that will inevitably dampen the ethnic factor.
I therefore find it inconvenient to accept that Kenyans can be written off so casually. Or that Kenyans will suffer from mass selective amnesia and somehow forget the past. Perhaps, Mutahi Ngunyi and the pollsters whose gambit is based on tribal arithmetic should run their numbers again. Pollsters and pundits in Kenya lack the benefit of historical record which is fundamental prerequisite to making half accurate predictions either of opinion or of numbers. On Election Day, I submit the wager that Kenya will raise and fail her leaders to the “tyranny of democracy”. The power of a free people to choose their preferred leaders based on common interests, issues, faith, values and most importantly peace.
By Nathan Wangusi. Nathan is a PhD Candidate at the University of Florida in Gainesville, Florida in the United States of America | Email: natekish@gmail.com.
