Official data from the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) reveals most of the 832,887 vote-gap between Uhuru and Raila were concentrated in the ten counties, with the rivals sharing the other 37.
The revelation, a key determinant in a re-run if the petition by Raila’s Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) is successful, shows how Uhuru became president-elect. Kiambu County was the most generous for the president-elect.
The county, which has 12 constituencies handed Uhuru 705,185 votes, representing 90 per cent of votes cast against Raila’s 61,700. This means the county accounted for 11 per cent of Uhuru’s 6.1 million votes.
IEBC data shows Raila performed well in Nairobi County, where he garnered 691,156 of the 1.4 million votes cast, translating to 49 per cent. However, Uhuru aggressively ate into Raila’s popularity in Nairobi coming second with 659,490 votes. This was 31,666 votes shy of what Raila got or 46.75 per cent of the total votes cast in the capital.
Nairobi has 17 constituencies. CORD bagged the governor’s position, but lost the senator and women representative posts to Jubilee. Despite Raila leading in Nairobi, he was beaten by his rival in terms of parliamentary seats won.
Ethnic strongholds
Uhuru’s TNA secured ten national assembly seats, including the one in Mathare under contention, leaving seven to ODM. None of the other 54 parties won a parliamentary seat in Nairobi.
With the exception of Nairobi, an analysis of the voting data shows the two candidates got most of their backing from their ethnic strongholds, followed by where their running mates hail from. The tight race in Nairobi, also the most cosmopolitan part of Kenya, is a mirror of the close contest. IEBC data reveals Uhuru had 3.8 million votes in the top ten counties against Raila’s 3.1 million, a margin of 733,601.
This indicates the election was largely won by the top ten counties in which each of the candidates had a strong following. Six out of the top ten counties that gave Uhuru the biggest vote are from his backyard in central Kenya. Another two of his best are from Rift Valley, where his running mate William Ruto commands huge following. The remaining are from Eastern and Nairobi, completing his best ten counties.
The data bursts the myth that Ruto, now the deputy president-elect, was the main face behind Uhuru’s victory given he only delivered Kericho and Uasin Gishu in the top ten counties. The other counties that pushed Uhuru to win include Nakuru, where he got 494,239 votes, Murang’a 406,334 votes and Meru 384,290 votes.
Uhuru was also the most popular candidate in Nyeri, where he got 318,880 votes, Kericho 238,556 votes, Nyandarua 232,808 and Uasin Gishu 211,438 votes.
On the other hand, Raila’s ten best performing counties were in Nyanza, three in Eastern, the backyard of his running mate Kalonzo Musyoka. Western produced just one county in the top ten for Raila and Nairobi the other one.
Political might
CORD must be thanking Kisumu County, which has seven constituencies, after it emerged the second most prolific after Nairobi, delivering 337,232 votes. Machakos County came in third with 319,594 votes. Homa Bay County was fourth with 303,447 votes followed by Kakamega with 303,120.
Other important counties for CORD were Kisii with 236,831 votes, Makueni 228,843 while Migori handed Raila 225,645 votes. Kitui gave Raila 219,588 votes.
Ironically, none of the counties at the Coast made to the top ten list of each of the rival groups despite the region voting largely for CORD.
The coastal region was one of the main battle zones. CORD clinched five of the six gubernatorial posts after winning in Mombasa, Kilifi, Kwale, and Taita Taveta counties through ODM and Tana River County through Wiper Democratic Movement.
CORD also won 18 of the 27 parliamentary seats in the region, viewed as a clear show of political might. However, none made it to the list of the top ten counties.
In case of a re-run, Uhuru’s election team may be forced to look at Homa Bay, Siaya, Kisumu, Vihiga, Busia, Taita Taveta, Kakamega, Makueni, Kwale, Lamu and Samburu counties, their last ten in terms of votes.
But Raila’s team may have the greatest headache to convince voters from Nyandarua, Kirinyaga, Mandera, Nyeri, Elgeyo Marakwet, Tharaka Nithi, Murang’a, Bomet, Isiolo, Baringo and Embu to back his bid.
-Standard Digital
