Kenyans could be Lying to Poll Researchers

Research Consultant, Tom Wolf

This is the big question top researcher Tom Wolf was asking yesterday after noting a “curious case” of discrepancies between figures of opinion polls in relation to some known hard facts.

Wolf, a research consultant regularly contracted by Ipsos Synovate Group said almost all poll companies have posted figures showing that 95 per cent of the people they approached for polling purposes are registered voters.

Yet, only about two thirds (14.3 million) of the eligible Kenyans (22.5 million) are registered to vote. This makes the total percentage of registered voters 63 per cent against the eligible percentage of 100.

“Most of these respondents could be lying to us. If indeed they are lying, one could say Kenyans do not generally like to come out honest on such matters. They always want to be on the correct side of history,” Wolf said.

Wolf said he noticed the 'same pattern of lies' in an August 2003 poll auditing performance of the historic 2002 elections. Ninety two per cent of those polled said they voted yet only 69 per cent of registered voters actually did.

Ideally, the number of respondents ought to have oscillated around 69 per cent. Wolf said polling companies do not insist on actual proofs like a voter's card when conducting their poll surveys as such questions " would take a lot of time and the respondents may loose interest.”

“If we were to demand proof, probably the figures would be different. Unfortunately we cannot. It's a like a customer in a hotel lying he is a vegetarian when he is not. You do not expect the waiter to go hard on him to table proof!"

Asked about the possibility of respondents lying on all other questions in the same manner, Wold said he had no reason to believe that the impact of the lies would make a significant statistical difference.

He said poll companies had generally been proven credible in the performance of the 2005 referendum on the constitution, during the 2007 general election, the 2010 referendum on the constitution and the numeorus by-elections held in the country since 2007.

“Historically, the impact of these perceived lies has been statistically insignificant to the larger picture. We do not know about the future but for now, I do not think it affect the credibility of the polls generally,” he said.

In its most recent poll, Ipsos Synovate posted that 84 per cent of Kenyans said they will vote “no matter what.” Another 10 per cent said they will “probably vote.” However, ordinarily and even in properly functioning democracies voter turn out rarely exceeds 70 per cent. - The Star