Statistically, the odds of winning depend a lot on whether there is an incumbent seeking reelection. In 2013, we can argue CORD represents the incumbent-with the Prime Minister and the Vice-President.
Incumbency offers tremendous advantages, by some estimates adding at least 3 points to the “normal” result, turning a 50-50 election into one that is 53-47. This is what is giving Raila a lead over Uhuru.
If there is an election a party would normally be expected to win, the smart thing to do is to nominate a low-beta candidate. That is why Jubilee may have won already had they settled for Musalia Mudavadi. If, on the other hand, a party is thought likely to lose, it might select a high-beta candidate. That would increase its chances of winning, though it would also increase its chances of losing big.
If we were to look at the overall map, constituency by constituency, there are a lot of variations that present CORD with a more clear roadmap to 50+1 as opposed to Jubilee. From County 1 in Mombasa to County 47 in Nairobi, CORD will likely post impressive numbers.
It is surprising that in the Rift Valley where William Ruto is expected to deliver the most votes; Nandi country, Elgeyo Marakwet County and Uasin Gishu county, the total registered voters are 707,795. Contrast that with Eastern province in two counties Kalonzo Musyoka is expected to do well for CORD, Makueni and Machakos. The two combine for a total of 745,955 votes.
The Rift Valley province will be one interesting area to watch. What impact will Gideon Moi have on Baringo country? Will he deliver a certain percentage of votes to Musalia Mudavadi and deny Uhuru the much needed advantage?
Kiambu county may look good in numbers for Jubilee but we must not forget constituencies like Ruiru, Juja and Thika are very cosmopolitan. In Kiambu, it would be surprising to see CORD get around 100,000 votes. If Raila manages just that, he will be on the safer side. To this end, I see Uhuru pitching camp in Kiambu in days close to the election.
By Mukurima Muriuki | mukurima@gmail.com
Via mwakilishi.com
Incumbency offers tremendous advantages, by some estimates adding at least 3 points to the “normal” result, turning a 50-50 election into one that is 53-47. This is what is giving Raila a lead over Uhuru.
If there is an election a party would normally be expected to win, the smart thing to do is to nominate a low-beta candidate. That is why Jubilee may have won already had they settled for Musalia Mudavadi. If, on the other hand, a party is thought likely to lose, it might select a high-beta candidate. That would increase its chances of winning, though it would also increase its chances of losing big.
If we were to look at the overall map, constituency by constituency, there are a lot of variations that present CORD with a more clear roadmap to 50+1 as opposed to Jubilee. From County 1 in Mombasa to County 47 in Nairobi, CORD will likely post impressive numbers.
It is surprising that in the Rift Valley where William Ruto is expected to deliver the most votes; Nandi country, Elgeyo Marakwet County and Uasin Gishu county, the total registered voters are 707,795. Contrast that with Eastern province in two counties Kalonzo Musyoka is expected to do well for CORD, Makueni and Machakos. The two combine for a total of 745,955 votes.
The Rift Valley province will be one interesting area to watch. What impact will Gideon Moi have on Baringo country? Will he deliver a certain percentage of votes to Musalia Mudavadi and deny Uhuru the much needed advantage?
Kiambu county may look good in numbers for Jubilee but we must not forget constituencies like Ruiru, Juja and Thika are very cosmopolitan. In Kiambu, it would be surprising to see CORD get around 100,000 votes. If Raila manages just that, he will be on the safer side. To this end, I see Uhuru pitching camp in Kiambu in days close to the election.
By Mukurima Muriuki | mukurima@gmail.com
Via mwakilishi.com