Without doubt, Odinga has every right to go to court and challenge the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) pronouncement of the presidential election winner in hope that the decision will be reversed. Those before him who have refused to concede have gone sought remedy in court; some have prevailed and have seen results overturned but others have failed. The onus is on the superior court to make the right decision.
What troubles many about Odinga is his habitual trend of refusing to accept defeat. After competing and losing to outgoing President Mwai Kibaki in 2007, he mobilized purportedly peaceful street protests that turned violent and resulted in deaths of 1,300 Kenyans and widespread destruction of property. Odinga’s reward was creation of an interim Prime Minister through a coalition government. Odinga earlier had refused to concede defeat after losing the elections of 1997. When the wolf finally came, the boy who cried wolf failed to get the attention he had often received since his associates considered him conniving; this lead to loss of a goat. Will similar fate befall Odinga or will the superior court’s ruling be in his favor?
The coalition government which Odinga was central to created IEBC - an independent electoral commission. But now, when the pronouncement of the presidential election winner fails to go Odinga’s way, then he blames the same organ he helped create but had previously endorsed as independent. You can’t have your cake and eat it (too).
In addition to the president, senators, members of parliament, governors, and members of county assemblies were all elected on the same day utilizing the same platform. If the presidential vote can be nullified, fairness calls for annulment of all other positions elected on March 4, 2014 since they were also conducted on the same platform. How can you separate the soup at the bottom from the rest of the soup in the pot? It is all one and the same liquid. The superior court judges should attempt and consider the soup analogy as they deliberate their decision.
Tyranny of Numbers
Analysis by political analyst Mutahi Ngunyi argued Odinga lost the election on December 18, 2012; the same day voter registration was concluded. According to Ngunyi, Jubilee strongholds had registered 6.8 million voters compared to 2.8 million voters for Cord strongholds. Ngunyi argued that Odinga and his team were caught sleeping as they continued to bank on the opinion polls. Ngunyi’s advice to Cord was for Odinga to design a strategy that would deny Jubilee a first round win. Cord’s donkey unfortunately had only three weeks to strategize and it turned out, it was not ample time to implement a stopgap strategy; everything was left to chance. The final outcome validated Ngunyi’s prediction (READ MORE: Kenyan Political Scientist Mutahi Ngunyi Predicts a Win for Jubilee Alliance).
Superior Court Decision
On Monday, March 25, 2013 the superior court ordered a sample recount of 22 polling stations around the country. If results from the recount and examination of Forms 34 and 36 fail to indicate outliers or material anomalies, then Odinga’s goose will be already cooked. But even with the goose cooked and chilling in the refrigerator, the cost of Odinga’s actions to Kenya must be of concern to all.
In view of what is happening in the courtroom I am of the opinion that the decision of the court will be to uphold the elections results as announced by IEBC and inaugurate Uhuru as the fourth President of Kenya.
By Paddy Mwembu - Los Angeles, California via mwakilishi.com
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