An American diplomat, who did not want to be named, admits the equivocation by foreign governments on the validity or otherwise of the presidential polloutcome is a powder keg that can precipitate unrest.
“The West is one sided. Assuming the court upholds the election of Uhuru Kenyatta, what will they do because they are not leaving room for mediation in the event of a stand-off,” he explains.
Martin Oloo, a law lecturer at the University of Nairobi, argues foreign governments are right to be apprehensive because the outcome is being contested in court.
“The elections were not won clearly, but they were won somehow. What is not in doubt is that the West cannot see Jubilee serving its interests. They had investedtheir hopes in Raila Odinga and that is why none of its governments with embassies in Kenya has recognised Uhuru election,” says Dr Oloo.
While West has taken cautious strategy pending the outcome of the petition Prime Minster Raila Odinga has filed in the Supreme Court, the Eastern bloc was fast in congratulating Jubilee flag-bearer Uhuru Kenyatta, who the national elections body declared winner last Saturday.
Whatever the outcome of the petition the Coalition for Reforms and Democracy (CORD) there will be an aggrieved party that is expected to escalate the mistrust that has developed between the main rivals.
Potential impact
The American diplomat wants the international community to be ready to manage the potential impact of the verdict, especially if the election were to be overturned, because it will have consequences at home and abroad.
The diplomat who spoke to The Standard On Sunday was critical of the manner foreign governments had taken sides in the election standoff between the Jubilee and CORD before the Supreme Court’s verdict on the validity of the presidential pollresults. Already, China and a host of African countries, among them South Africa, Tanzania, Uganda, South Sudan, and Rwanda have recognised Jubilee win over CORD, while most Western governments have put on hold their position pending the court decision.
Former Kenyan High Commissioner to Tanzania Boaz Mbaya while dismissing fears of violence acknowledges the challenge if the court orders a repeat.
“I think we are moving forward and foreign diplomats should leave the country alone. We have institutions that are respected. My only worry is if the election is nullified. That is a grey area for the country. Otherwise the decision by CORD to go to court provides a breathing space that has removed the possibility of an impasse like that of 2007,” Mr Mbaya observes. A meeting between CORD officials and diplomats from the United States, Canada and the European Union accredited to Nairobi on Monday has sent signals that the West is sympathetic to Raila.
China, the West’s main rival in geopolitics, is rooting for Uhuru. However, former Permanent Secretary for Ethics and Good Governance, John Githongo, is of the opinion that the diplomats should speak candidly about the elections because “they saw what happened”.
“They are scared for nothing. They are an artillery of peace, so when they see something wrong they should say what they know rather than hide behind excuses of peace,” argues Githongo, the Chief Executive of Inuka Kenya, a civil society organisation that advocates for good governance, transparency, and rule of law. When the 2007 poll results were announced, the United States rushed to congratulate Mwai Kibaki on his re-election, but belatedly reversed its position when Raila’s Orange Democratic Movement disputed the results.
In the ensuing chaos it took more than two weeks for parties to agree to sit down with international mediators to end the violence that had already claimed 1,133 lives and forced half-a-million others off their farms.
This was because the partisan positions taken by the West and some African countries failed to inspire the trust of the chief protagonists — Kibaki and Raila, who later agreed to form a coalition government. Other than congratulating the electorate for going through the polls peacefully, Britain, like the US, has maintained strategic silence on Uhuru’s election. The move has sent jitters in the incoming government whose chief executives face charges of crimes against humanity at the International Criminal Court.
The cautious approach is informed by the mistakes the West made in 2007, according to deputy director of the Africa Centre at the Atlantic Council in Washington, Bronwyn Bruton.
Foreign policy
Burton, an expert on US foreign policy, in a treatise, Handicapping the Kenyan Election, notes, “During the 2007 post-election crisis, the State Department prematurely congratulated Kibaki on his electoral victory, despite widespread allegations that he had rigged. State’s interpretation of the Kibaki win as a fait accompli – coupled with the refusal of the International Republican Institute (an American election monitoring group) to release exit polling data that suggested an Odinga win, allegedly at the insistence of the American Embassy – was read in Kenya as a signal that the West intended to ignore any crimes committed by its preferred candidate.”
Contacted for clarification in why his government has not taken a definitive position of the presidential poll, the British High Commission in Nairobi through head of public affairs unit, John Bradshaw, said London’s position had not changed from the position contained in a statement issued on Monday by Minister for Africa, Mark Simmonds.
In the statement Simmonds said, “I urge all sides to show patience and restraint, to accept defeat or take any disputes to the courts. I am confident that the courts will deal with any dispute swiftly and fairly. I appeal to all parties to maintain the same peaceful and democratic spirit that we have witnessed so far.”
The statement presumes that the protagonists and their supporters will uphold the court’s decision.
Burton warns the US against “an all-too-eager show of support for Odinga (that) could easily backfire again. Instead, the United States should signal its wholehearted commitment to the integrity of the Kenyan electoral process and the rule of law by supporting a swift judicial review of any allegations of irregularity.”
However, what if the court reverses Uhuru’s election? The diplomat who drew The Standard On Sunday’s attention to the growing dilemma in the West after the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission pronounced Jubilee the victor, says the likely isolation of Kenya for electing a president indicted by ICC is worrying. Burton, however, says the impact of isolation will be minimal as Uhuru can have his way.
“Because of its strategic location in geopolitics and relative economic development, the US and European Union are left with a few options,” he says.
- The Standard
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