Maina disputes Mutahi Ngunyi’s “Tyranny of Numbers”and instead offers his own analysis titled "What Tyranny of Numbers?" that predicts the election will be won in the run-off round, adding that numerous polls have placed CORD ahead of Jubilee.
Maina presents what he describes as five “factual errors” on “Tyranny of Numbers”:
- Kenyans vote along ethnic lines do not always vote for their own tribesmen as alleged by Ngunyi.
- CORD has a much larger base of voters/”bankable voters” than Jubilee.
- Maina says incumbents have had an upper hand in previous elections, and this according to him places Raila at an advantage.
- There are 3.5 million new voters in this election and their voting pattern is not known.
- Turnout of the GEMA community will not be as high as predicted by Mutahi Ngunyi.
