While defections are possible after the October 17 deadline defined by law, those moving to another party afterwards would not thus, would be locked out of the March 4 contest.
Leading presidential contenders are, therefore, scrambling to attract the strongest candidates to strengthen their parties ahead of any pre-election coalition talks or independent runs in the General Election.
Cross-party movements are expected to peak in earnest in the next three weeks. Much of the activity is focused around the largest parties: The National Alliance (TNA), Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), United Democratic Forum (UDF), United Republican Party (URP), and Wiper Democratic Movement (WDM).
What is evident in many of the ongoing and impending defections are the ethnic inclinations, which are apparently being encouraged with the hope of bolstering the big tribes’ influence in the next government.
In the countdown to the polls, Kikuyu, Luhya, Luo, and Kalenjin leaders are consolidating their ethnic blocs to improve their bargaining power in the face of new electoral rules that require broad national support to win and form a government.
Roads Assistant Minister Mwangi Kiunjuri says talk of working with “like-minded leaders” in coalitions is a euphemism for ethnic re-arrangements ahead of the contest. In the unfolding scenario, big parties are seeking to hold out against ceding ground to rivals in the presidential, gubernatorial, senate, parliamentary, women representation, and civic seats.
“At this rate, small parties will not field candidates,” says Kiunjuri. “Some of the people saying they are defecting settled on their parties a long time ago and were waiting for the right time to make a move.”
The pressure parties are responding to comes from the recent by-elections in which TNA and ODM excelled, the statutory deadline for candidates to belong to a party (at least three months before party nominations), and the eagerly awaited High Court decision on the eligibility of Deputy Prime Minister Uhuru Kenyatta and Eldoret MP William Ruto to hold public office. This is pending the trials of Uhuru and Ruto at the International Criminal Court (ICC).
The High Court verdict will be delivered on October 27. Together with radio presenter Joshua arap Sang and former Head of Civil Service Francis Muthaura, Uhuru and Ruto will from next April stand trial for crimes against humanity during the 2008 post-election violence. Despite this, Uhuru and Ruto say they are in still the race.
Flurry of defections
Gachoka MP, Mutava Musyimi, touched off the flurry of defections this week when he moved to TNA from Democratic Party.
“I would not like to belong to a party that lacks grassroots support,” Musyimi, hitherto a presidential aspirant, told The Standard On Sunday.
“I realised that the ground had shifted to TNA, which forced me to move with it.”
Says Kiunjuri, “The shifts are a result of popularity of parties in some regions. The small parties, without resources and media attention, might not survive the wave of defections necessitated by a legal requirement that one must have been a member of the party he seeks nomination on.”
And there has been speculation as to whether Imenti Central MP Gitobu Imanyara will reconsider his support for Raila in the face of alleged Mt Kenya shift to TNA.
“I want to clear the air – my support for Raila Odinga is founded on the firm belief that he is the only candidate with reform credentials and a national support base that is capable of attaining constitutional threshold to bring on board a president that will give Kenya a stable government,” said Imanyara.
In ODM, UDF, and TNA the drift is expected to peak next week. The falling out was given the impetus by last week Cabinet reshuffle that caused disaffection in ODM and PNU.
ODM’s Webuye MP Alfred Sambu, who had been widely expected to join the Cabinet, was initially said to be shopping for a new party in protest at the PM’s preference for Busia County that received three Cabinet appointments.
Neighbouring constituencies
Contacted, Mr Sambu said he would stay in ODM, but admitted he was incensed by the appointment of Ababu Namwamba as Sports minister and the elevation of Paul Otuoma to the Local Government Ministry besides Fred Gumo, who is Regional Development minister. The three come from neighbouring constituencies.
Sambu says the appointments are going to have an impact on how the electoral bloc perceives their party. He does not rule out more defections. Sambu now plans to stay in the party with hopes that ODM would revive PanPaper Mills, Kitinda Dairy, market hubs, and Malakisi Ginnery, which are considered party flagship economic projects for Bungoma.
“The PM has made our work difficult. You cannot reward neighbouring constituencies with less than 60,000 voters against, say, Emuhaya alone with 105,000 voters. Politics is about numbers and with what has happened defections are expected,” he says, but denied reports of his switch to UDF.
ODM neutralised its loss with the capture of Gonzi Rai from Ford-People, at a time Nominated MP Rachel Shebesh says she is shopping for a new party ahead of the October 4 deadline for parties to comply with nominations law. Like Sambu, and Emuhaya MP Wilbur Ottichilo, they are angry that they were overlooked during the Cabinet reshuffle.
Housing Assistant Minister Margaret Wanjiru plans to decamp to TNA from ODM next week. She was allegedly disappointed after she missed out on a Cabinet position. Wanjiru expected to replace Co-operatives Minister Joe Nyaga.
On Friday Nyagah said although there was a plan to sack him as Co-operatives minister, he was still in ODM.
“There was a scheme to relieve me of my ministerial duties, but President Kibaki saved me. But I have not defected to TNA,” he said.
Dr Ottichillo’s parting shot after the Cabinet reshuffle was: “They have taken our jobs to Busia despite our counties being solid voting blocs in Western. It shows they don’t value us.” He is now eyeing Vihiga County governorship on UDF ticket.
Bishop Wanjiru could neither confirm nor deny the reports when asked via text message after she failed to answer phone calls. But she went public on Thursday, saying she wants a party where she would be “celebrated, rather than tolerated”.
“As a leader, one of my management principles is that I go where I am celebrated, not where I’m tolerated,” she stated.
MPs from Rift Valley are also feeling the heat. Roads Minister Franklin Bett is said to be considering his stay in ODM given that he represents a region that is overwhelmingly URP. His push to be Raila’s running mate is perceived as a ploy to find an excuse to quit.
Inter-party migration
Sotik MP, Joyce Laboso, carved in under pressure yesterday and made her move to ditch ODM for URP at Ruto’s Karen home.
Inter-party migration has seen Mukurwe-ini MP and UDF founder member decamp to TNA after his rival, Mutahi Kagwe, joined the race for the seat on UDF.
Nominated MP George Nyamweya has returned to PNU after a short stint in UDF, while Kangundo MP Johnston Muthama has opted for Kiraitu Murungi’s APK after parting ways with Vice-President Kalonzo Musyoka in WDM. Muthama was one of Kalonzo’s main financier. Also deserting WDM to Narc party is Mutito MP Kiema Kilonzo.
By Juma Kwayera, The Standard
