As one of the two principals in the coalition government, Raila had the power to force elections anytime by just stepping down as prime minister. Raila could have used this weapon while his main opponents were weak and not organized. Politics is a dirty game and you can’t play a dirty game cleanly. Once the key bills governing the elections had been passed, Raila could have stepped down, forcing Kibaki to dissolve parliament and call for new elections. If the elections were conducted between August and December last year, Raila could have had his best chance of winning. Former President Moi used this tool to perfection during his 24 year rule. He always waited when the opposition was napping and he would dissolve parliament. He always said in public, controlling when elections will be held was his biggest weapon.
Until August last year, Uhuru wasn’t even sure if he wanted to run for president or support someone else. He did not even have a political party. He was being kicked out of KANU. On the other hand, Ruto did not even have a political party. Ruto had been kicked out of ODM and was fighting for survival and control of UDM which eventually kicked him out. Immediately after the ICC confirmed the charges against Uhuru and Ruto, their favorability rating was at their lowest. Even the constitutional court specifically reminded Raila of his powers in forcing early elections. The judges were categorical that for early election to occur the principals of the coalition parties agree in writing or one coalition partner withdraws from the mediated arrangement. Dissolution of the coalition government established by the National Accord on February 28, 2008 was a key determinant. Why didn’t Raila take advantage of this provision and force early elections? He had been in the grand coalition for almost four years at that time. He had already gotten whatever he could get from this coalition. Or was he engulfed with the power and privileges of the office of Prime and did not want it to end?
When Kibaki assigned the office of the Prime Minister the responsibility of the Mau Forest restoration, Raila being the supervisor of the cabinet, could have re-assigned those responsibilities to any of the ministers, to avoid being directly involved. This was a highly politicized project. Even though this project was approved by cabinet, Kibaki let politicians accuse Raila for the evictions and damaged his public image. This is a project Minister for Environment, Special Projects, Forestry or Lands could easily have handled. Why the Prime Minister wanted to head the project himself leave a lot of questions un-answered. If indeed Raila was a politician, this is an assignment he could have easily passed up. Was Raila, trying to build resume’ of a champion of environmental conservation through his dogged pursuit of the restoration of the Mau? This in the end hurt him politically in Rift Valley
ICC issue is another one that Raila did not handle well. While Kibaki was protecting the suspects from his side of the coalition, Raila was out in the public demonized the suspects from his side of the coalition. As much as Raila was advocating for the victims of post-election violence, he failed to understand that those accused in ODM for committing crimes did so, because they felt he had been robbed of victory. The least he could do was not be very vocal about the suspects. This becomes the death in the nail for the prime minister amongst the Kalenjins who felt abandon by the Prime Minister after they overwhelmingly voted for him. Mr. Ruto and Mr. Kenyatta’s supporters/sympathizers have been persuaded that if Mr. Odinga is elected President, he will put the two on the first plane to The Hague. Let’s face it, if Raila just wins one third of the Kalenjin votes on March 4th, we would be talking about a run-off right now and not Uhuru inauguration. Raila made it possible for the coalition of the accused and now he has paid the full price.